Chief vs 49er’s; My Expert (?) Analysis

From the Sidelines

640

Tomorrow is the day we have all been waiting for; SUPER BOWL LVIII (58 for those who don’t care for Roman numerals!) I am writing this Saturday morning after thinking about it all week.  Last Tuesday in our Round table discussion (found on My County Link on Facebook or the internet) I chose the Kansas City Chiefs. I think it will be a close game, and I stated that IF and only IF the Chiefs can run the ball, they will win. I did look through some stats for both teams but there is one statistic I think is the most significant stat to watch for.

In my stat search, I was surprised to see that the San Francisco 49er’s were 19th in the league this year in STOPPING THE RUN.  The Kansas City Chiefs on the other hand were 19th in RUNNING THE BALL!  That is a perfectly even matchup, and very unusual.

San Francisco leads in almost all offensive categories but one, and that was pass attempts per game, no surprise there.  What was surprising is the Kansas City Chiefs had much better defensive stats overall than the 49er’s!  In the last two playoff games, the 49er’s have given up 70 more yards per game than they did during the regular season, and most were on the ground.

So, after contemplating those statistics, I think that the Chiefs, who have a really tough runner in Isiah Pacheco who can get the tough yards, have a solid chance. The question is can the San Francisco 49er’s, who statistically are better against the pass than the run, stop Pacheco?  Joe Thuney, the 6’5” guard from Alter High School in Dayton, is out with a torn pectoral muscle, so Nick Allegretti will have to fill the All-Pro’s shoes.

This will be a tough game, but I think it will contain some high scoring, maybe 28-24.  I am picking the Chiefs only because I think they will be able to run enough to cause the 49er’s defense headaches.  IF the Chiefs can’t run the ball, then they get blown out!

That’s the way I see it…..from the sidelines!

Offensive Stat Comparison

Stat SF KC
Yards/Play 6.5 5.5
Points/Play 0.476 0.346
Rush Play % 48.18% 39.76%
Pass Play % 51.82% 60.24%
Completion % 67.56% 66.53%
3D Conv % 48.79% 43.02%
RZ Scoring % 68.49% 52.70%

Defensive Stat Comparison

Stat SF KC
Opp Yards/Play 5.1 4.8
Opp Points/Play 0.299 0.270
Opp Completion % 65.52% 60.51%
Opp 3D Conv % 42.08% 36.02%
Opp RZ Scoring % 54.72% 50.91%